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Background Historical, social and economic reasons can lead to major differences in the allocation of health system resources and research funding. These differences might endanger the progress in diagnostic and therapeutic approaches of socio-economic important diseases. The present study aimed to assess different benchmarking approaches that might be used to analyse these disproportions. Research in two categories was analysed for various output parameters and compared to input parameters. Germany was used as a high income model country. For the areas of cardiovascular and respiratory medicine density equalizing mapping procedures visualized major geographical differences in both input and output markers.
Results An imbalance in the state financial input was present with 36 cardiovascular versus 8 respiratory medicine state-financed full clinical university departments at the C4/W3 salary level. The imbalance in financial input is paralleled by an imbalance in overall quantitative output figures: The 36 cardiology chairs published 2708 articles in comparison to 453 articles published by the 8 respiratory medicine chairs in the period between 2002 and 2006. This is a ratio of 75.2 articles per cardiology chair and 56.63 articles per respiratory medicine chair. A similar trend is also present in the qualitative measures. Here, the 2708 cardiology publications were cited 48337 times (7290 times for respiratory medicine) which is an average citation of 17.85 per publication vs. 16.09 for respiratory medicine. The average number of citations per cardiology chair was 1342.69 in contrast to 911.25 citations per respiratory medicine chair. Further comparison of the contribution of the 16 different German states revealed major geographical differences concerning numbers of chairs, published items, total number of citations and average citations.
Conclusions Despite similar significances of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases for the global burden of disease, large input and output imbalances have been revealed in the present study which point to a need for changes in funding policies. The present study supplies data that could be used for decision making in the field of health systems funding.
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Background:
An epidemic may exhibit different spatial patterns with a change in geographic scale, with each scale having different conduits and impediments to disease spread. Mapping disease at each of these scales often reveals different cluster patterns. This paper will consider this change of geographic scale in an analysis of yellow fever deaths for New Orleans in 1878. Global clustering for the whole city, will be followed by a focus on the French Quarter, then clusters of that area, and finally street-level patterns of a single cluster. The three-dimensional visualization capabilities of a GIS will be used as part of a cluster creation process that incorporates physical buildings in calculating mortality-to-mortality distance. Including nativity of the deceased will also capture cultural connection.
Results:
Twenty-two yellow fever clusters were identified for the French Quarter. These generally mirror the results of other global cluster and density surfaces created for the entire epidemic in New Orleans. However, the addition of building-distance, and disease specific time frame between deaths reveal that disease spread contains a cultural component. Same nativity mortality clusters emerge in a similar time frame irrespective of proximity. Italian nativity mortalities were far more densely grouped than any of the other cohorts. A final examination of mortalities for one of the nativity clusters reveals that further sub-division is present, and that this pattern would only be revealed at this scale (street level) of investigation.
Conclusions:
Disease spread in an epidemic is complex resulting from a combination of geographic distance, geographic distance with specific connection to the built environment, disease-specific time frame between deaths, impediments such as herd immunity, and social or cultural connection. This research has shown that the importance of cultural connection may be more important than simple proximity, which in turn might mean traditional quarantine measures should be re-evaluated.
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Background:
Seasonal patterns in cardiac disease in the northern hemisphere are well described in the literature. More recently age and gender differences in cardiac mortality and to a lesser extent morbidity have been presented. To date spatial differences between the seasonal patterns of cardiac disease has not been presented. Literature relating to seasonal patterns in cardiac disease in the southern hemisphere and in Australia in particular is scarce. The aim of this paper is to describe the seasonal, age, gender, and spatial patterns of cardiac disease in Melbourne Australia by using acute myocardial infarction admissions to hospital as a marker of cardiac disease.
Results:
There were 33,165 Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI) admissions over 2186 consecutive days. There is a seasonal pattern in AMI admissions with increased rates during the colder months. The peak month is July. The admissions rate is greater for males than for females, although this difference decreases with advancing age. The maximal AMI season for males extends from April to November. The difference between months of peak and minimum admissions was 33.7%. Increased female AMI admissions occur from May to November, with a variation between peak and minimum of 23.1%. Maps of seasonal AMI admissions demonstrate spatial differences. Analysis using Global and Local Moran's I showed increased spatial clustering during the warmer months. The Bivariate Moran's I statistic indicated a weaker relationship between AMI and age during the warmer months.
Conclusion:
There are two distinct seasons with increased admissions during the colder part of the year. Males present a stronger seasonal pattern than females. There are spatial differences in AMI admissions throughout the year that cannot be explained by the age structure of the population. The seasonal difference in AMI admissions warrants further investigation. This includes detailing the prevalence of cardiac disease in the community and examining issues of social and environmental justice.
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IntroductionThe reasons for elevated breast cancer rates in the upper Cape Cod area of Massachusetts remain unknown despite several epidemiological studies that investigated possible environmental risk factors. Data from two of these population-based case-control studies provide geocoded residential histories and information on confounders, creating an invaluable dataset for spatial-temporal analysis of participants' residency over five decades.
Methods:
The combination of statistical modeling and mapping is a powerful tool for visualizing disease risk in a spatial-temporal analysis. Advances in geographic information systems (GIS) enable spatial analytic techniques in public health studies previously not feasible. Generalized additive models (GAMs) are an effective approach for modeling spatial and temporal distributions of data, combining a number of desirable features including smoothing of geographical location, residency duration, or calendar years; the ability to estimate odds ratios (ORs) while adjusting for confounders; selection of optimum degree of smoothing (span size); hypothesis testing; and use of standard software.
We conducted a spatial-temporal analysis of breast cancer case-control data using GAMs and GIS to determine the association between participants' residential history during 1947-1993 and the risk of breast cancer diagnosis during 1983-1993. We considered geographic location alone in a two-dimensional space-only analysis. Calendar year, represented by the earliest year a participant lived in the study area, and residency duration in the study area were modeled individually in one-dimensional time-only analyses, and together in a two-dimensional time-only analysis. We also analyzed space and time together by applying a two-dimensional GAM for location to datasets of overlapping calendar years. The resulting series of maps created a movie which allowed us to visualize changes in magnitude, geographic size, and location of elevated breast cancer risk for the 40 years of residential history that was smoothed over space and time.
Results:
The space-only analysis showed statistically significant increased areas of breast cancer risk in the northern part of upper Cape Cod and decreased areas of breast cancer risk in the southern part (p-value=0.04; ORs: 0.90-1.40). There was also a significant association between breast cancer risk and calendar year (p-value=0.05; ORs: 0.53-1.38), with earlier calendar years resulting in higher risk. The results of the one-dimensional analysis of residency duration and the two-dimensional analysis of calendar year and duration showed that the risk of breast cancer increased with increasing residency duration, but results were not statistically significant. When we considered space and time together, the maps showed a large area of statistically significant elevated risk for breast cancer near the Massachusetts Military Reservation (p-value range:0.02-0.05; ORs range: 0.25-2.5). This increased risk began with residences in the late 1940s and remained consistent in size and location through the late 1950s.
Conclusions:
Spatial-temporal analysis of the breast cancer data may help identify new exposure hypotheses that warrant future epidemiologic investigations with detailed exposure models. Our methods allow us to visualize breast cancer risk, adjust for known confounders including age at diagnosis or index year, family history of breast cancer, parity and age at first live- or stillbirth, and test for the statistical significance of location and time. Despite the advantages of GAMs, analyses are for exploratory purposes and there are still methodological issues that warrant further research. This paper illustrates that GAM methods are a suitable alternative to widely-used cluster detection methods and may be preferable when residential histories from existing epidemiological studies are available.
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Background:
Knowledge of the geographical locations of individuals is fundamental to the practice of spatial epidemiology. One approach to preserving the privacy of individual-level addresses in a data set is to de-identify the data using a non-deterministic blurring algorithm that shifts the geocoded values. We investigate a vulnerability in this approach which enables an adversary to re-identify individuals using multiple anonymized versions of the original data set. If several such versions are available, each can be used to incrementally refine estimates of the original geocoded location.
Results:
We produce multiple anonymized data sets using a single set of addresses and then progressively average the anonymized results related to each address, characterizing the steep decline in distance from the re-identified point to the original location, (and the reduction in privacy). With ten anonymized copies of an original data set, we find a substantial decrease in average distance from 0.7 km to 0.2 km between the estimated, re-identified address and the original address. With fifty anonymized copies of an original data set, we find a decrease in average distance from 0.7 km to 0.1 km.
Conclusion:
We demonstrate that multiple versions of the same data, each anonymized by non-deterministic Gaussian skew, can be used to ascertain original geographic locations. We explore solutions to this problem that include infrastructure to support the safe disclosure of anonymized medical data to prevent inference or re-identification of original address data, and the use of a Markov-process based algorithm to mitigate this risk.
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Background:
Cholera has claimed many lives throughout history and it continues to be a global threat, especially in countries in Africa. The disease is listed as one of three internationally quarantinable diseases by the World Health organization, along with plague and yellow fever. Between 1999 and 2005, Africa alone accounted for about 90% of over 1 million reported cholera cases worldwide. In Ghana, there have been over 27000 reported cases since 1999. In one of the affected regions in Ghana, Ashanti region, massive outbreaks and high incidences of cholera have predominated in urban and overcrowded communities.
Results:
A GIS based spatial analysis and statistical analysis, carried out to determine clustering of cholera, showed that high cholera rates are clustered around Kumasi Metropolis ( the central part of the region) , with Moran's Index = 0.271 and P
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Background:
Chronic exposure to traffic-related air pollution is associated with a variety of health impacts in adults and recent studies show that exposure varies spatially, with some residents in a community more exposed than others. A spatial exposure simulation model (SESM) which incorporates six microenvironments (home indoor, work indoor, other indoor, outdoor, in-vehicle to work and in-vehicle other) is described and used to explore spatial variability in estimates of exposure to traffic-related nitrogen dioxide (not including indoor sources) for working people. The study models spatial variability in estimated exposure aggregated at the census tracts level for 382 census tracts in the Greater Vancouver Regional District of British Columbia, Canada. Summary statistics relating to the distributions of the estimated exposures are compared visually through mapping. Observed variations are explored through analyses of model inputs.
Results:
Two sources of spatial variability in exposure to traffic-related nitrogen dioxide were identified. Median estimates of total exposure ranged from 8 μg/m3 to 35 μg/m3 of annual average hourly NO2 for workers in different census tracts in the study area. Exposure estimates are highest where ambient pollution levels are highest. This reflects the regional gradient of pollution in the study area and the relatively high percentage of time spent at home locations. However, for workers within the same census tract, variations were observed in the partial exposure estimates associated with time spent outside the residential census tract. Simulation modeling shows that some workers may have exposures 1.3 times higher than other workers residing in the same census tract because of time spent away from the residential census tract, and that time spent in work census tracts contributes most to the differences in exposure. Exposure estimates associated with the activity of commuting by vehicle to work were negligible, based on the relatively short amount of time spent in this microenvironment compared to other locations. We recognize that this may not be the case for pollutants other than NO2. These results represent the first time spatially disaggregated variations in exposure to traffic-related air pollution within a community have been estimated and reported.
Conclusion:
The results suggest that while time spent in the home indoor microenvironment contributes most to between-census tract variation in estimates of annual average exposures to traffic-related NO2, time spent in the work indoor microenvironment contributes most to within-census tract variation, and time spent in transit by vehicle makes a negligible contribution. The SESM has potential as a policy evaluation tool, given input data that reflect changes in pollution levels or work flow patterns due to traffic demand management and land use development policy.
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Background:
Every year, West Africa is afflicted with Meningococcal Meningitis (MCM) disease outbreaks. Although the seasonal and spatial patterns of disease cases have been shown to be linked to climate, the mechanisms responsible for these patterns are still not well identified.
Results:
A statistical analysis of annual incidence of MCM and climatic variables has been performed to highlight the relationships between climate and MCM for two highly afflicted countries: Niger and Burkina Faso. We found that disease resurgence in Niger and in Burkina Faso is likely to be partly controlled by the winter climate through enhanced Harmattan winds. Statistical models based only on climate indexes work well in Niger showing that 25% of the disease variance from year-to-year in this country can be explained by the winter climate but fail to represent accurately the disease dynamics in Burkina Faso.
Conclusion:
This study is an exploratory attempt to predict meningitis incidence by using only climate information. Although it points out significant statistical results it also stresses the difficulty of relating climate to interannual variability in meningitis outbreaks.
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Background:
In health and place research, definitions of areas, area characteristics, and health outcomes should ideally be coherent with one another. Yet current approaches for delimiting areas mostly rely on spatial units "of convenience" such as census tracts. These areas may be homogeneous along socioeconomic conditions but heterogeneous along other environmental characteristics. This heterogeneity can lead to biased measurement of environment characteristics and misestimation of area effects on health. The objective of this study was to assess the soundness of census tracts as units of analysis for measuring the active living potential of environments, hypothesised to be associated with walking.
Results:
Starting with data at the smallest census area level available, zones homogeneous along three indicators of active living potential, i.e. population density, land use mix, and accessibility to services, were designed. Delimitation of zones ensued from statistical clustering of the smallest areas into seven clusters or "types of environment". Mapping of clusters into a GIS led to the delineation of 898 zones characterised by one of seven types of environment, corresponding to different levels of active living potential. Homogeneity of census tracts along indicators of active living potential varied. A greater proportion (83%) of variation in accessibility to services was attributable to differences between census tracts suggesting within-tract homogeneity along this variable. However, census tracts were heterogeneous with respect to population density and land use mix where a greater proportion of the variation was attributable to within-tract differences. About 55% of tracts were characterised by a combination of three or more "types of environment" suggesting substantial within-tract heterogeneity in the active living potential of environments.
Conclusion:
Soundness of census tracts for measuring active living potential may be limited. Measuring active living potential with error may lead to misestimation of associations with walking, therefore limiting the correctness of inference about area effects on walking. Future studies should aim to determine homogeneity of spatial units "of convenience" along environment characteristics of interest prior to examining their association with health. Further evidence is needed to assess the extent of this methodological issue with other indicators of environment context relevant to other health indicators.
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'Mashup' was originally used to describe the mixing together of musical tracks to create a new piece of music. The term now refers to Web sites or services that weave data from different sources into a new data source or service. Using a musical metaphor that builds on the origin of the word 'mashup', this paper presents a demonstration "playlist" of four geo-mashup vignettes that make use of a range of Web 2.0, Semantic Web, and 3-D Internet methods, with outputs/end-user interfaces spanning the flat Web (two-dimensional – 2-D maps), a three-dimensional – 3-D mirror world (Google Earth) and a 3-D virtual world (Second Life ®). The four geo-mashup "songs" in this "playlist" are: 'Web 2.0 and GIS (Geographic Information Systems) for infectious disease surveillance', 'Web 2.0 and GIS for molecular epidemiology', 'Semantic Web for GIS mashup', and 'From Yahoo! Pipes to 3-D, avatar-inhabited geo-mashups'. It is hoped that this showcase of examples and ideas, and the pointers we are providing to the many online tools that are freely available today for creating, sharing and reusing geo-mashups with minimal or no coding, will ultimately spark the imagination of many public health practitioners and stimulate them to start exploring the use of these methods and tools in their day-to-day practice. The paper also discusses how today's Web is rapidly evolving into a much more intensely immersive, mixed-reality and ubiquitous socio-experiential Metaverse that is heavily interconnected through various kinds of user-created mashups.
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Background:
Seasonal patterns in cardiac disease in the northern hemisphere are well described in the literature. More recently age and gender differences in cardiac mortality and to a lesser extent morbidity have been presented. To date spatial differences between the seasonal patterns of cardiac disease has not been presented. Literature relating to seasonal patterns in cardiac disease in the southern hemisphere and in Australia in particular is scarce. The aim of this paper is to describe the seasonal, age, gender, and spatial patterns of cardiac disease in Melbourne Australia by using acute myocardial infarction admissions to hospital as a marker of cardiac disease.
Results:
There were 33,165 Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI) admissions over 2186 consecutive days. There is a seasonal pattern in AMI admissions with increased rates during the colder months. The peak month is July. The admissions rate is greater for males than for females, although this difference decreases with advancing age. The maximal AMI season for males extends from April to November. The difference between months of peak and minimum admissions was 33.7%. Increased female AMI admissions occur from May to November, with a variation between peak and minimum of 23.1%. Maps of seasonal AMI admissions demonstrate spatial differences. Analysis using Global and Local Moran's I showed increased spatial clustering during the warmer months. The Bivariate Moran's I statistic indicated a weaker relationship between AMI and age during the warmer months.
Conclusions:
There are two distinct seasons with increased admissions during the colder part of the year. Males present a stronger seasonal pattern than females. There are spatial differences in AMI admissions throughout the year that cannot be explained by the age structure of the population. The seasonal difference in AMI admissions warrants further investigation. This includes detailing the prevalence of cardiac disease in the community and examining issues of social and environmental justice.
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Background:
Health professionals, policy-makers and researchers need to be able to explore potential associations between prevalence rates and quality of care with a range of possible determinants including socio-economic deprivation and morbidity levels to determine the impact of commissioning and service delivery. In the UK, data in England are only available nationally at practice postcode level. In Scotland, such data are available based on an aggregate of the practices population's postcodes. The use of data assigned to the practice postcode may underestimate the association between ill health and income deprivation. Here, we report on the impact of using data assigned to the practice population by comparing analyses using English and Scottish data.
Results:
Income deprivation based on data assigned to the practice postcode under-estimated deprivation compared to using income deprivation data assigned to the practice population for the five least deprived deciles, and over-estimated deprivation for the five most deprived deciles. The biggest differences were found for the most deprived decile. A similar trend was found for limiting long-term illness (LLTI). Differences between the QOF prevalence rates of the least and most deprived deciles using practice postcode data were similar (0.2% points or less) in England and Scotland for 8 out of 10 clinical domains. Using practice population assigned deprivation, differences in the prevalence rate between the least and most deprived deciles increase for all clinical domains. A similar trend was again found for LLTI. Using practice population assigned deprivation, differences for population achievement increase for all CHD quality indicators with the exception of beta-blockers (CHD10). With practice postcode assigned deprivation, significant differences between the least and most deprived deciles were found for 2 out 8 indicators, compared to 5 using practice population assigned deprivation. For LLTI differences between the lowest and most deprived deciles increased for all indicators when ill health assigned to the practice population was used.
Conclusion:
We have found, through comparing deprivation and ill health data assigned to either the practice postcode or the practice population postcode in Scotland, that analyses based on practice postcode assigned data under-estimated the relationship between deprivation and ill health for both prevalence and quality care. Given the importance of understanding the effect of deprivation and ill health on a range of determinants related to health care, policy makers should ensure that practice population data are available and used at national level in England and elsewhere where possible.
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ObjectivesThe aims of this study were to model jointly the incidence rates of six smoking related cancers in the Yorkshire region of England, to explore the patterns of spatial correlation amongst them, and to estimate the relative weight of smoking and other shared risk factors for the relevant disease sites, both before and after adjustment for socioeconomic background (SEB).
Methods:
Data on the incidence of oesophagus, stomach, pancreas, lung, kidney, and bladder cancers between 1983 and 2003 were extracted from the Northern & Yorkshire Cancer Registry database for the 532 electoral wards in the Yorkshire region. Using postcode of residence, each case was assigned an area-based measure of SEB using the Townsend index. Standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated for each cancer site and their correlations investigated. The joint analysis of the spatial variation in incidence used a Bayesian shared-component model. Three components were included to represent differences in smoking (for all six sites), bodyweight/obesity (for oesophagus, pancreas and kidney cancers) and diet/alcohol consumption (for oesophagus and stomach cancers).
Results:
The incidence of cancers of the oesophagus, pancreas, kidney, and bladder was relatively evenly distributed across the region. The incidence of stomach and lung cancers was more clustered around the urban areas in the south of the region, and these two cancers were significantly associated with higher levels of area deprivation. The incidence of lung cancer was most impacted by adjustment for SEB, with the rural/urban split becoming less apparent. The component representing smoking had a larger effect on cancer incidence in the eastern part of the region. The effects of the other two components were small and disappeared after adjustment for SEB.
Conclusion:
This study demonstrates the feasibility of joint disease modelling using data from six cancer sites. Incidence estimates are more precise than those obtained without smoothing. This methodology may be an important tool to help authorities evaluate healthcare system performance and the impact of policies.
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Background:
In leprosy endemic areas, patients are usually spatially clustered and not randomly distributed. Classical statistical techniques fail to address the problem of spatial clustering in the regression model. Bayesian method is one which allows itself to incorporate spatial dependence in the model. However little is explored in the field of leprosy. The Bayesian approach may improve our understanding about the variation of the disease prevalence of leprosy over space and time.
Methods:
Data from an endemic area of leprosy, covering 148 panchayats from two taluks in South India for four time points between January 1991 and March 2003 was used. Four Bayesian models, namely, space-cohort and space-period models with and without interactions were compared using the Deviance Information Criterion. Cohort effect, period effect over four time points and spatial effect (smoothed) were obtained using WinBUGS. The spatial or panchayat effect thus estimated was compared with the raw standardized morbidity (leprosy prevalence) rate (SMR) using a choropleth map. The possible factors that might have influenced the variations of prevalence of leprosy were explored.
Results:
Bayesian models with the interaction term were found to be the best fitted model. Leprosy prevalence was higher than average in the older cohorts. The last two cohorts 1987-1996 and 1992-2001 showed a notable decline in leprosy prevalence. Period effect over 4 time points varied from a high of 3.2% to a low of 1.8%. Spatial effect varied between 0.59 and 2. Twenty-six panchayats showed significantly higher prevalence of leprosy than the average when Bayesian method was used and it was 40 panchayats with the raw SMR.
Conclusions:
Reduction of prevalence of leprosy was 92% for persons born after 1996, which could be attributed to various intervention and treatment programmes like vaccine trial and MDT. The estimated period effects showed a gradual decline in the risk of leprosy which could be due to better nutrition, hygiene and increased awareness about the disease. Comparison of the maps of the relative risk using the Bayesian smoothing and the raw SMR showed the variation of the geographical distribution of the leprosy prevalence in the study area. Panchayat or spatial effects using Bayesian showed clustersing of leprosy cases towards the northeastern end of the study area which was overcrowded and population belonging to poor economic status.
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Background:
Chronic exposure to traffic-related air pollution is associated with a variety of health impacts in adults and recent studies show that exposure varies spatially, with some residents in a community more exposed than others. A spatial exposure simulation model (SESM) which incorporates six microenvironments (home indoor, work indoor, other indoor, outdoor, in-vehicle to work and in-vehicle other) is described and used to explore spatial variability in estimates of exposure to traffic-related nitrogen dioxide (not including indoor sources) for working people. The study models spatial variability in estimated exposure aggregated at the census tracts level for 382 census tracts in the Greater Vancouver Regional District of British Columbia, Canada. Summary statistics relating to the distributions of the estimated exposures are compared visually through mapping. Observed variations are explored through analyses of model inputs.
Results:
Two sources of spatial variability in exposure to traffic-related nitrogen dioxide were identified. Median estimates of total exposure ranged from 8 g/m3 to 35 g/m3 of annual average hourly NO2 for workers in different census tracts in the study area. Exposure estimates are highest where ambient pollution levels are highest. This reflects the regional gradient of pollution in the study area and the relatively high percentage of time spent at home locations. However, for workers within the same census tract, variations were observed in the partial exposure estimates associated with time spent outside the residential census tract. Simulation modeling shows that some workers may have exposures 1.3 times higher than other workers residing in the same census tract because of time spent away from the residential census tract, and that time spent in work census tracts contributes most to the differences in exposure. Exposure estimates associated with the activity of commuting by vehicle to work were negligible, based on the relatively short amount of time spent in this microenvironment compared to other locations. We recognize that this may not be the case for pollutants other than NO2. These results represent the first time spatially disaggregated variations in exposure to traffic-related air pollution within a community have been estimated and reported.
Conclusions:
The results suggest that while time spent in the home indoor microenvironment contributes most to between-census tract variation in estimates of annual average exposures to traffic-related NO2, time spent in the work indoor microenvironment contributes most to within-census tract variation, and time spent in transit by vehicle makes a negligible contribution. The SESM has potential as a policy evaluation tool, given input data that reflect changes in pollution levels or work flow patterns due to traffic demand management and land use development policy.
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'Mashup' was originally used to describe the mixing together of musical tracks to create a new piece of music. The term now refers to Web sites or services that weave data from different sources into a new data source or service. Using a musical metaphor that builds on the origin of the word 'mashup', this paper presents a demonstration "playlist" of four geo-mashup vignettes that make use of a range of Web 2.0, Semantic Web, and 3-D Internet methods, with outputs/end-user interfaces spanning the flat Web (two-dimensional -- 2-D maps), a three-dimensional -- 3-D mirror world (Google Earth) and a 3-D virtual world (Second Life (R)). The four geo-mashup "songs" in this "playlist" are: 'Web 2.0 and GIS (Geographic Information Systems) for infectious disease surveillance', 'Web 2.0 and GIS for molecular epidemiology', 'Semantic Web for GIS mashup', and 'From Yahoo! Pipes to 3-D, avatar-inhabited geo-mashups'. It is hoped that this showcase of examples and ideas, and the pointers we are providing to the many online tools that are freely available today for creating, sharing and reusing geo-mashups with minimal or no coding, will ultimately spark the imagination of many public health practitioners and stimulate them to start exploring the use of these methods and tools in their day-to-day practice. The paper also discusses how today's Web is rapidly evolving into a much more intensely immersive, mixed-reality and ubiquitous socio-experiential Metaverse that is heavily interconnected through various kinds of user-created mashups.
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Background:
Health professionals, policy-makers and researchers need to be able to explore potential associations between prevalence rates and quality of care with a range of possible determinants including socio-economic deprivation and morbidity levels to determine the impact of commissioning and service delivery. In the UK, data in England are only available nationally at practice postcode level. In Scotland, such data are available based on an aggregate of the practices population's postcodes. The use of data assigned to the practice postcode may underestimate the association between ill health and income deprivation. Here, we report on the impact of using data assigned to the practice population by comparing analyses using English and Scottish data.
Results:
Income deprivation based on data assigned to the practice postcode under-estimated deprivation compared to using income deprivation data assigned to the practice population for the five least deprived deciles, and over-estimated deprivation for the five most deprived deciles. The biggest differences were found for the most deprived decile. A similar trend was found for limiting long-term illness (LLTI). Differences between the QOF prevalence rates of the least and most deprived deciles using practice postcode data were similar (0.2% points or less) in England and Scotland for 8 out of 10 clinical domains. Using practice population assigned deprivation, differences in the prevalence rate between the least and most deprived deciles increase for all clinical domains. A similar trend was again found for LLTI. Using practice population assigned deprivation, differences for population achievement increase for all CHD quality indicators with the exception of beta-blockers (CHD10). With practice postcode assigned deprivation, significant differences between the least and most deprived deciles were found for 2 out 8 indicators, compared to 5 using practice population assigned deprivation. For LLTI differences between the lowest and most deprived deciles increased for all indicators when ill health assigned to the practice population was used.
Conclusion:
We have found, through comparing deprivation and ill health data assigned to either the practice postcode or the practice population postcode in Scotland, that analyses based on practice postcode assigned data under-estimated the relationship between deprivation and ill health for both prevalence and quality care. Given the importance of understanding the effect of deprivation and ill health on a range of determinants related to health care, policy makers should ensure that practice population data are available and used at national level in England and elsewhere where possible.
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Background:
The Pennsylvania Cancer Atlas (PA-CA) is an interactive online atlas to help policy-makers, program managers, and epidemiologists with tasks related to cancer prevention and control. The PA-CA includes maps, graphs, tables, that are dynamically linked to support data exploration and decision-making with spatio-temporal cancer data. Our Atlas development process follows a user-centered design approach. To assess the usability of the initial versions of the PA-CA, we developed and applied a novel strategy for soliciting user feedback through multiple distributed focus groups and surveys. Our process of acquiring user feedback leverages an online web application (e-Delphi). In this paper we describe the PA-CA, detail how we have adapted e-Delphi web application to support usability and utility evaluation of the PA-CA, and present the results of our evaluation.
Results:
We report results from four sets of users. Each group provided structured individual and group assessments of the PA-CA as well as input on the kinds of users and applications for which it is best suited. Overall reactions to the PA-CA are quite positive. Participants did, however, provide a range of useful suggestions. Key suggestions focused on improving interaction functions, enhancing methods of temporal analysis, addressing data issues, and providing additional data displays and help functions. These suggestions were incorporated in each design and implementation iteration for the PA-CA and used to inform a set of web-atlas design principles.
Conclusion:
For the Atlas, we find that a design that utilizes linked map, graph, and table views is understandable to and perceived to be useful by the target audience of cancer prevention and control professionals. However, it is clear that considerable variation in experience using maps and graphics exists and for those with less experience, integrated tutorials and help features are needed. In relation to our usability assessment strategy, we find that our distributed, web-based method for soliciting user input is generally effective. Advantages include the ability to gather information from users distributed in time and space and the relative anonymity of the participants while disadvantages include less control over when and how often participants provide input and challenges for obtaining rich input.
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Background:
Since 1999, the expansion of the West Nile virus (WNV) epizooty has led public health authorities to build and operate surveillance systems in North America. These systems are very useful to collect data, but cannot be used to forecast the probable spread of the virus in coming years. Such forecasts, if proven reliable, would permit preventive measures to be put into place at the appropriate level of expected risk and at the appropriate time. It is within this context that the Multi-Agent GeoSimulation approach has been selected to develop a system that simulates the interactions of populations of mosquitoes and birds over space and time in relation to the spread and transmission of WNV. This simulation takes place in a virtual mapping environment representing a large administrative territory (e.g. province, state) and carried out under various climate scenarios in order to simulate the effects of vector control measures such as larviciding at scales of 1/20 000 or smaller.
Results:
After setting some hypotheses, a conceptual model and system architecture were developed to describe the population dynamics and interactions of mosquitoes (genus Culex) and American crows, which were chosen as the main actors in the simulation. Based on a mathematical compartment model used to simulate the population dynamics, an operational prototype was developed for the Southern part of Quebec (Canada). The system allows users to modify the parameters of the model, to select various climate and larviciding scenarios, to visualize on a digital map the progression (on a weekly or daily basis) of the infection in and around the crows' roosts and to generate graphs showing the evolution of the populations. The basic units for visualisation are municipalities.
Conclusion:
In all likelihood this system might be used to support short term decision-making related to WNV vector control measures, including the use of larvicides, according to climatic scenarios. Once fully calibrated in several real-life contexts, this promising approach opens the door to the study and management of other zoonotic diseases such as Lyme disease.
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Background:
Every year, West Africa is afflicted with Meningococcal Meningitis (MCM) disease outbreaks. Although the seasonal and spatial patterns of disease cases have been shown to be linked to climate, the mechanisms responsible for these patterns are still not well identified.
Results:
A statistical analysis of annual incidence of MCM and climatic variables has been performed to highlight the relationships between climate and MCM for two highly afflicted countries: Niger and Burkina Faso. We found that disease resurgence in Niger and in Burkina Faso is likely to be partly controlled by the winter climate through enhanced Harmattan winds. Statistical models based only on climate indexes work well in Niger showing that 25% of the disease variance from year-to-year in this country can be explained by the winter climate but fail to represent accurately the disease dynamics in Burkina Faso.
Conclusions:
This study is an exploratory attempt to predict meningitis incidence by using only climate information. Although it points out significant statistical results it also stresses the difficulty of relating climate to interannual variability in meningitis outbreaks.
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Background:
Surveillance of infectious diseases increasingly relies on Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The integration of pathogen fine typing data in dynamic systems and visualization of spatio-temporal clusters are a technical challenge for system development.
Results:
An online geographic information system (EpiScanGIS) based on open source components has been launched in Germany in May 2006 for real time provision of meningococcal typing data in conjunction with demographic information (age, incidence, population density). Spatio-temporal clusters of disease detected by computer assisted cluster analysis (SaTScan™) are visualized on maps. EpiScanGIS enables dynamic generation of animated maps. The system is based on open source components; its architecture is open for other infectious agents and geographic regions. EpiScanGIS is available at
[www.episcangis.org,] and currently has 80 registered users, mostly from the public health service in Germany. At present more than 2,900 cases of invasive meningococcal disease are stored in the database (data as of June 3, 2008).
Conclusion:
EpiScanGIS exemplifies GIS applications and early-warning systems in laboratory surveillance of infectious diseases.
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Background:
Mammography is essential for early detection of breast cancer and both reduced morbidity and increased survival among breast cancer victims. Utilization is lower than national guidelines, and evidence of a recent decline in mammography use has sparked concern. We demonstrate that regression models estimated over pooled samples of heterogeneous states may provide misleading information regarding predictors of health care utilization and that comprehensive cancer control efforts should focus on understanding these differences and underlying causal factors. Our study population includes all women over age 64 with breast cancer in the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) cancer registries, linked to a nationally representative 5% reference sample of Medicare-eligible women located in 11 states that span all census regions and are heterogeneous in racial and ethnic mix. Combining women with and without cancer in the sample allows assessment of previous cancer diagnosis on propensity to use mammography. Our conceptual model recognizes the interplay between individual, social, cultural, and physical environments along the pathways to health care utilization, while delineating local and more distant levels of influence among contextual variables. In regression modeling, we assess individual-level effects, direct effects of contextual factors, and interaction effects between individual and contextual factors.
Results:
Pooling all women across states leads to quite different conclusions than state-specific models. Commuter intensity, community acculturation, and community elderly impoverishment have significant direct impacts on mammography use which vary across states. Minorities living in isolated enclaves with others of the same race/ethnicity may be either advantaged or disadvantaged, depending upon the place studied.
Conclusion:
Careful analysis of place-specific context is essential for understanding differences across communities stemming from different causal factors. Optimal policy interventions to change behavior (improve screening rates) will be as heterogeneous as local community characteristics, so no "one size fits all" policy can improve population health. Probability modeling with correction for clustering of individuals within multilevel contexts can reveal important differences from place to place and identify key factors to inform targeting of specific communities for further study.
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Background:
The seasonality of cholera is described in various study areas throughout the world. However, no study examines how temporal cycles of the disease vary around the world or reviews its hypothesized causes. This paper reviews the literature on the seasonality of cholera and describes its temporal cycles by compiling and analyzing 32 years of global cholera data. This paper also provides a detailed literature review on regional patterns and environmental and climatic drivers of cholera patterns.Data, Methods, and ResultsCholera data are compiled from 1974 to 2005 from the World Health Organization Weekly Epidemiological Reports, a database that includes all reported cholera cases in 140 countries. The data are analyzed to measure whether season, latitude, and their interaction are significantly associated with the country-level number of outbreaks in each of the 12 preceding months using separate negative binomial regression models for northern, southern, and combined hemispheres. Likelihood ratios tests are used to determine the model of best fit. The results suggest that cholera outbreaks demonstrate seasonal patterns in higher absolute latitudes, but closer to the equator, cholera outbreaks do not follow a clear seasonal pattern.
Conclusion:
The findings suggest that environmental and climatic factors partially control the temporal variability of cholera. These results also indirectly contribute to the growing debate about the effects of climate change and global warming. As climate change threatens to increase global temperature, resulting rises in sea levels and temperatures may influence the temporal fluctuations of cholera, potentially increasing the frequency and duration of cholera outbreaks.
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Background:
In Austria, over the last 20 years infant mortality declined from 11.2 per 1,000 life births (1985) to 4.7 per 1,000 in1997 but remained rather constant since then. In addition to this time trend we already reported a non-random spatial distribution of infant mortality rates in a recent study covering the time period 1984 to 2002.This present study includes four additional years and now covers about 1.9 million individual birth certificates. It aimes to elucidate the observed non-random spatial distribution in more detail. We split up infant mortality into six groups according to the underlying cause of death. The underlying spatial distribution of standardized mortality ratios (SMR) is estimated by univariate models as well as by two models incorporating all six groups simultaneously.
Results:
We observe strong correlations between the individual spatial patterns of SMR's except for "Sudden Infant Death Syndrome" and to some extent for "Peripartal Problems". The spatial distribution of SMR's is non-random with an area of decreased risk in the South-East of Austria. The group "Sudden Infant Death Syndrome" clearly and the group "Peripartal Problems" slightly show deviations from the common pattern. When comparing univariate and multivariate SMR estimates we observe that the resulting spatial distributions are very similar.
Conclusion:
We observe different non-random spatial distributions of infant mortality rates when grouped by cause of death. The models applied were based on individual data thereby avoiding ecological regression bias. The estimated spatial distributions do not substantially depend on the employed estimation method. The observed non-random spatial patterns of Austrian infant mortality remain to appear ambiguous.
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Background:
Liver cancer is not common in Canada in general; however, clustering of the disease causes a concern. We conducted a spatial analysis to determine the geographic variation of liver cancer and its association with the proportion of immigration in Ontario. Liver cancer incidence data between 1998 and 2002 were obtained from the Ontario Cancer Registry. The Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) in 2001 provided information on potential risk factors.
Results:
Age standardized incidence ratios (SIR) for liver cancer and prevalence of potential risk factors were calculated for each of 35 health regions. The SIRs for liver cancer varied across the 35 health regions (p
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Background:
A community health assessment (CHA) is used to identify and address health issues in a given population. Effective CHA requires timely and comprehensive information from a wide variety of sources, such as: socio-economic data, disease surveillance, healthcare utilization, environmental data, and health resource allocation.
Indonesia is a developing country with 235 million inhabitants over 13,000 islands. There are significant barriers to conducting CHA in developing countries like Indonesia, such as the high cost of computing resources and the lack of computing skills necessary to support such an assessment.
At the University of Pittsburgh, we have developed the Spatial OLAP (On-Line Analytical Processing) Visualization and Analysis Tool (SOVAT) for performing CHA. SOVAT combines Geographic Information System (GIS) technology along with an advanced multidimensional data warehouse structure to facilitate analysis of large, disparate health, environmental, population, and spatial data.
The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the potential of SOVAT for facilitating CHA among developing countries by using health, population, healthcare resources, and spatial data from Indonesia for use in two CHA cases studies.
Results:
Bureau of Statistics administered data sets from the Indonesian Census, and the Indonesian village statistics, were used in the case studies. The data consisted of: healthcare resources (number of healthcare professionals and facilities), population (census), morbidity and mortality, and spatial (GIS-formatted) information.
The data was formatted, combined, and populated into SOVAT for CHA use. Case study 1 involves the distribution of healthcare professionals in Indonesia, while case study 2 involves malaria mortality. Screen shots are shown for both cases. The results for the CHA were retrieved in seconds and presented through the geospatial and numerical SOVAT interface.
Conclusions:
The case studies show the potential of spatial and multidimensional analysis using SOVAT for community health assessment in developing countries. Financial challenges as well as limited technological skills are barriers in conducting CHA in these environments. Since SOVAT is based primarily on open-source components and can be deployed using small personal computers, it is cost-effective for developing countries. Also, combining the strength in analysis and the ease of use makes tools like SOVAT ideal for healthcare professionals without extensive computer skills.
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Effective public health practice relies on the availability of public health data sources and assessment tools to convey information to investigators, practitioners, policy makers, and the general public. Emerging communication technologies on the Internet can deliver all components of the "who, what, when, and where" quartet more quickly than ever with a potentially higher level of quality and assurance, using new analysis and visualization tools. Open-source software provides the opportunity to build low-cost information systems allowing health departments with modest resources access to modern data analysis and visualization tools. In this paper, we integrate open-source technologies and public health data to create a web information system which is accessible to a wide audience through the Internet. Our web application, "EpiVue," was tested using two public health datasets from the Washington State Cancer Registry and Washington State Center for Health Statistics. A third dataset shows the extensibility and scalability of EpiVue in displaying gender-based longevity statistics over a twenty-year interval for 3,143 United States counties. In addition to providing an integrated visualization framework, EpiVue's highly interactive web environment empowers users by allowing them to upload their own geospatial public health data in either comma-separated text files or MS Excel™ spreadsheet files and visualize the geospatial datasets with Google Maps™.
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Background:
The impact of climate change and particularly increasing temperature on mortality has been examined for three cities in the province of Québec, Canada.
Methods:
Generalized linear Poisson regression has been fitted to the total daily mortality for each city. Smooth parametric cubic splines of temperature and humidity have been used to do nonlinear modeling of these parameters. The model, to control for day of the week and for non-temperature seasonal factors, used a smooth function of time, including delayed effects. The model was then used to assess variation in mortality for simulated future temperatures obtained from an atmospheric General Circulation Model coupled with downscaling regression techniques. Two CO2 emission scenarios are considered (scenarios A2 and B2). Projections are made for future periods around year 2020 (2010–2039), 2050 (2040–2069) and 2080 (2070–2099).
Results:
A significant association between mortality and current temperature has been found for the three cities. Under CO2 emission scenarios A2 and B2, the mortality model predicts a significant increase in mortality in the summertime, and a smaller, but significant decrease in the fall season. The slight variations in projected mortality for future winter and spring seasons were found to be not statistically significant. The variations in projected annual mortality are dominated by an increase in mortality in the summer, which is not balanced by the decrease in mortality in the fall and winter seasons. The summer increase and the annual mortality range respectively from about 2% and 0.5% for the 2020 period, to 10% and 3% for the years around 2080. The difference between the mortality variations projected with the A2 or B2 scenarios was not statistically significant.
Conclusion:
For the three cities, the two CO2 emission scenarios considered led to an increase in annual mortality, which contrasts with most European countries, where the projected increase in summer mortality with respect to climate change is overbalanced by the decrease in winter mortality. This highlights the importance of place in such analyses. The method proposed here to establish these estimates is general and can also be applied to small cities, where mortality rates are relatively low (ex. two deaths/day).
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Background:
Live cancer is not common in Canada in general; however, clustering of the disease causes a concern. We conducted a spatial analysis to determine the geographic variation of liver cancer and its association with the proportion of immigration in Ontario. Liver cancer incidence data between 1998 and 2002 were obtained from the Ontario Cancer Registry. The Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) in 2001 provided information on potential risk factors.
Results:
Age standardized incidence ratios (SIR) for liver cancer and prevalence of potential risk factors were calculated for each of 35 health regions. The SIRs for liver cancer varied across the 35 health regions (p
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Background:
The age of initiation of sexual intercourse is an increasingly important issue to study given that sexually active young women are at risk of multiple outcomes including early pregnancies, vesico-vaginal fistula, and sexually transmitted infections. Much research has focused on the demographic, familial, and social factors associated with sexual initiation and reasons adolescents begin having consensual intercourse. Less is known, however, about the geographical and contextual factors associated with age of initiation of sexual intercourse. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to examine the extent of regional and state disparities in age of initiation of sexual intercourse and to examine individual- and community-level predictors of early sexual debut.
Methods:
Multilevel logistic regression models were applied to data on 5531 ever or currently married women who had participated in 2003 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. Coital debut at 15 years or younger was used to define early sexual debut. Exploratory spatial data analysis methods were used to study geographic variation in age at first sexual intercourse.
Results:
The median age at first sexual intercourse for all women included in the study was 15 years (range; 14 – 19). North West and North East had the highest proportion of women who had reported early sexual debut (61% – 78%). The spatial distribution of age of initiation of sexual intercourse was nonrandom and clustered with a Moran's I = 0.635 (p = .001). There was significant positive spatial relationship between median age of marriage and spatial lag of median age of sexual debut (Bivariate Moran's I = 0.646, (p = .001). After adjusting for both individual-level and contextual factors, the probability of starting sex at an earlier age was associated with respondents' current age, education attainment, ethnicity, region, and community median age of marriage.
Conclusion:
The study found that individual-level and community contextual characteristics were independently associated with early sexual debut, suggesting that interventions to reduce adolescent high-risk sexual behaviour should focus on high-risk places as well as high-risk groups of people.
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Background:
Individual point data can be analyzed against an entire cohort instead of only sampled controls to accurately picture the geographic distribution of populations at risk for low prevalence diseases. Analyzed as individual points, many smaller clusters with high relative risks (RR) and low empirical p values are indistinguishable from a random distribution. When points are aggregated into areal units, small clusters may result in a larger cluster with a low RR or be lost if divided into pieces included in units of larger populations that show no increased prevalence. Previous simulation studies showed lowered validity of spatial scan tests for true clusters with low RR. Using simulations, this study explored the effects of low cluster RR and areal unit size on local area clustering test (LACT) results, proposing a procedure to improve accuracy of cohort spatial analysis for rare events.
Results:
Our simulations demonstrated the relationship of true RR to observed RR and p values with various, randomly located, cluster shapes, areal unit sizes and scanning window shapes in a diverse population distribution. Clusters with RR
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Background:
West Nile virus (WNV) emerged as a threat to public and veterinary health in the Midwest United States in 2001 and continues to cause significant morbidity and mortality annually. To investigate biotic and abiotic factors associated with disease incidence, cases of reported human disease caused by West Nile virus (WNV) in the state of Iowa were aggregated by census block groups in Iowa for the years 2002–2006. Spatially explicit data on landscape, demographic, and climatic conditions were collated and analyzed by census block groups. Statistical tests of differences between means and distributions of landscape, demographic, and climatic variables for census block groups with and without WNV disease incidence were carried out. Entomological data from Iowa were considered at the state level to add context to the potential ecological events taking place.
Results:
Numerous statistically significant differences were shown in the means and distributions of various landscape and demographic variables for census block groups with and without WNV disease incidence. Census block groups with WNV disease incidence had significantly lower population densities than those without. Landscape variables showing differences included stream density, road density, land cover compositions, presence of irrigation, and presence of animal feeding operations. Statistically significant differences in the annual means of precipitations, dew point, and minimum temperature for both the year of WNV disease incidence and the prior year, were detected in at least one year of the analysis for each parameter. However, the differences were not consistent between years.
Conclusion:
The analysis of human WNV disease incidence by census block groups in Iowa demonstrated unique landscape, demographic, and climatic associations. Our results indicate that multiple ecological WNV transmission dynamics are most likely taking place in Iowa. In 2003 and 2006, drier conditions were associated with WNV disease incidence. In a significant novel finding, rural agricultural settings were shown to be strongly associated with human WNV disease incidence in Iowa.
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Background:
Buruli ulcer (BU) disease, caused by infection with the environmental mycobacterium M. ulcerans, is an emerging infectious disease in many tropical and sub-tropical countries. Although vectors and modes of transmission remain unknown, it is hypothesized that the transmission of BU disease is associated with human activities in or around aquatic environments, and that characteristics of the landscape (e.g., land use/cover) play a role in mediating BU disease. Several studies performed at relatively small spatial scales (e.g., within a single village or region of a country) support these hypotheses; however, if BU disease is associated with land use/cover characteristics, either through spatial constraints on vector-host dynamics or by mediating human activities, then large-scale (i.e., country-wide) associations should also emerge. The objectives of this study were to (1) investigate associations between BU disease prevalence in villages in Benin, West Africa and surrounding land use/cover patterns and other map-based characteristics, and (2) identify areas with greater and lower than expected prevalence rates (i.e., disease clusters) to assist with the development of prevention and control programs.
Results:
Our landscape-based models identified low elevation, rural villages surrounded by forest land cover, and located in drainage basins with variable wetness patterns as being associated with higher BU disease prevalence rates. We also identified five spatial disease clusters. Three of the five clusters contained villages with greater than expected prevalence rates and two clusters contained villages with lower than expected prevalence rates. Those villages with greater than expected BU disease prevalence rates spanned a fairly narrow region of south-central Benin.
Conclusion:
Our analyses suggest that interactions between natural land cover and human alterations to the landscape likely play a role in the dynamics of BU disease. For example, urbanization, potentially by providing access to protected water sources, may reduce the likelihood of becoming infected with BU disease. Villages located at low elevations may have higher BU disease prevalence rates due to their close spatial proximity to high risk environments. In addition, forest land cover and drainage basins with variable wetness patterns may be important for providing suitable growth conditions for M. ulcerans, influencing the distribution and abundance of vectors, or mediating vector-human interactions. The identification of disease clusters in this study provides direction for future research aimed at better understanding these and other environmental and social determinants involved in BU disease outbreaks.
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